Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has said Egypt will invade neighbouring Libya if Turkish backed forces capture the strategic port of Sirte. The Libyan conflict has been raging since 2014 after it erupted in the aftermath of the power vacuum left by the overthrow of long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
The conflict is now mostly fought between the House of Representatives and their Libyan National Army (LNA), based in the East of the country and centred on Tobruk, and the Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the West of the country and based on Tripoli (the nation's capital).
While the LNA in the East, has been receiving support from the Egyptian state, the GNA has been increasingly receiving financial and military support from Turkey, under the guidance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan. Turkey has large scale interest in construction projects in Libya, worth over $18 billion, and is taking a strong interest in oil exploration and banking within the country. Libya is a huge exporter of oil and gas and, at one time, had the highest living standards on the African continent.
Now it looks as though the Turkish-backed GNA may be aiming to capture the strategic port of Sirte in the near future. Sirte would serve as a huge gain for Turkey and the GNA as it is a strategically important gateway to the nation's largest oil terminals. It could also result in a turning point in the war.
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi addressed his nation, stating Egypt is ready and willing to intervene in their war-torn neighbour and that the GNA attempting to capture Sirte would be a "red line". He said:
"If the Libyan people . . . asked us to intervene, this would be a signal to the world that Egypt and Libya are one country, one interest."
Ziad Akl, director of north African studies at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, an Egyptian think-tank, on evaluating the heightened tensions said:
"[The President's statement] is a message to Turkey that there are regional powers opposed to its intervention in Libya … The aim is deterrence; Egypt does not want a single Turk to cross the line into eastern Libya. It wants to relaunch negotiations. If Egypt intervenes, I think the last option would be boots on the ground."
The proxy conflict between Egypt and Turkey is not routed simply in a desire for regional power, but also on ideology. Turkish President ErdoÄŸan is seen to be a close ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, who Al-Sisi ousted from power in Egypt in 2013. This is combined with the fact that it appears that many in the Turkish area of influence are also supportive of Islamic extremists and Al-Qaeda and ISIS are believed to be operating in the region. The Egyptian government is strongly opposed to such groups.
Russia and France have also been supportive of the Egyptian LNA and are known to have provided military hardware. Therefore, the conflict, if escalated, has the potential to drag in other international powers. It will be seen in time as to whether the GNA will take the bold step and attempt to seize the strategic port.
COMMENTS