An amazing new scientific study, carried out at the University of Nottingham, has predicted that there could be more than 30 alien civilisations in our galaxy (The Milky Way). The paper calculates how many inhabitable planets exist within the Milky Way and the likelihood that life could develop upon them. Interestingly, it also predicts the likelihood that we will ever get to communicate with our alien neighbours. Spoiler alert – it isn’t high!
The study takes into account planets that are too far or too close to a star to likely produce alien life, our Earth sits in the Goldilocks position from the Sun, not too far and not too close. It also then takes into account The Astrobiological Copernican limit. This theory involves both a ‘weak’ limit and a ‘strong’ limit – whereby the weak limit suggests that intelligent life forms on any suitable planet after 5 billion years, while the strong limit suggests that life formed on a suitable planet 4.5 to 5 billion years ago.
These are important differences in the calculations as many planets, even if they are primed for life, may not have been in existence long enough to necessarily breed intelligent life. In this study the scientists used the ‘strong’ limit.
Christopher Conselice of the University of Nottingham said in relation to this limit:
"There should be at least a few dozen active civilizations in our Galaxy under the assumption that it takes 5 billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth."
The University of Nottingham study also took into account the level of metallic elements predicted in each planet. Postulating that intelligent life would only form on those planets with a high-enough metal component. So called, 'minimum stellar metallicity'.
When all of these parameters were entered into the calculations, the researchers concluded that around 36 intelligent civilizations are currently living in our galaxy. However, it is likely they are spread apart by 17,000 light-years on average. Meaning our ability to communicate with them could be very difficult indeed.
Scientists are curious as to how many potential intelligent species exist in the galaxy as it may indicate our future here on Earth. If there is indeed a large number of civilisations it means that intelligent life can overcome problems and flourish. However, very limited numbers of civilisations may indicate that intelligent life ultimately harms its future through either misadventure or scientific catastrophe.
"Our new research suggests that searches for extra-terrestrial intelligent civilizations not only reveals the existence of how life forms, but also gives us clues for how long our own civilization will last … If we find that intelligent life is common then this would reveal that our civilization could exist for much longer than a few hundred years, alternatively if we find that there are no active civilizations in our Galaxy it is a bad sign for our own long-term existence. By searching for extra-terrestrial intelligent life — even if we find nothing — we are discovering our own future and fate."
The truth is out there!
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