It appears from the latest pronouncements of Turkish President Recep Erdoğan, that the country is seeking to massively increase its influence in war-torn Libya by further assisting the Libyan Government of National Accord in the ongoing civil war, and by carving out influence over the Libyan banking, energy and construction sectors.
While Turkish troops have been in the country for some time, they have increasingly been seen to be involved directly in the training up of the GNA and assisting them in their ongoing war with the so-called Libyan National Army – who control the East of the country. The war itself has cost over 10,000 lives in the last 6 years.
Even though military support for the GNA was the initial alleged intention of the Turkish regime, it has become clear that they desire a greater say over Tripoli’s economic assets as well. While Turks have long-played a part in the economy of Libya, more than 25,000 lived there before the collapse of the Gaddafi regime, it is believed that construction projects alone under Turkish control are worth around $18 billion. A huge motivator for Erdogan to continue to fund, arm and train the GNA fighters.
Erdogan also believes that this will now give Turkey the right to drill in Libyan waters, Libya is already a heavily oil wealthy nation, and allow Turkey to have a say in the post-conflict politics of the country. Some have suggested that the coalition Libyan government contains Islamist parties who look ideologically favourably upon the Erdogan’s AK Party that rules over Turkey.
Since the slow grind of the Libyan civil-war continues, Turkey, while it may have regional ambitions, is hampered on a number of fronts. Like all nations, it is suffering under CoVid-19 and will surely face a major recession, the economy is expected to contract by around 4% in 2020. Turkey is also fighting an ongoing conflict against the Kurds in South-Eastern Turkey and Northern Syria, and the leadership has come in for both internal and external criticism on grounds of human-rights abuses and the bypassing of Turkish democracy.
Whether Turkey can truly continue to invest in an expansionist approach and make itself a stronger regional power in both the Middle-East and North Africa amidst these combined crises will wait to be seen. What is known is that should Turkey maintain its Libyan presence, and the GNA are able to defeat the Libyan insurgency, then vast profits could be heading into Turkish coffers soon.
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